My name is Josh Tucker. And since July 2025 I have been running a systematic trend following portfolio for myself. Rules-based entries, position sizing tied to volatility, no prediction required. Classic Trend Following.

Bending The Trend is a monthly dispatch. What the system did. Where the portfolio stands.

In this May update:

• Portfolio Snapshot

• Historical Monthly Performance

• Sector Summary

• Portfolio Statistics

Bending Trend portfolio was down -2.07% in May. Up +9.82% YTD (Jan-May).

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PERFORMANCE SNAPSHOT

May 2026 Summary

Current Outliers: BWET(L) ~342 ATRs, FLKR(L) ~67 ATRs, SLV(L) ~43 ATRs, GLD(L) ~42 ATRs, PLTM(L) ~36 ATRs, CENX(L) ~35 ATRs, ATI(L) ~30 ATRs, KGS(L) ~29 ATRs, LIT(L) ~23 ATRs, GPK(S) ~22 ATRs, CHFJPY(L) ~20 ATRs

Current Losing Trades: MDLZ(S) ~-5 ATRs, GDS(L) ~-4 ATRs, KCCA(S) ~-3 ATRs, DOLE(L) ~-3 ATRs, ABBV(S) ~-3 ATRs, TIP(S) ~-2 ATRs

Sector Performance

Utilities/Transport (~380 ATRs): BWET at 342 ATRs, the portfolio’s largest position by a wide margin. This sector alone accounts for roughly half of total portfolio ATR P&L. BDRY at 16, KNX at 10, MRTN at 8, NEE at 4.

Metal/Raw Materials (~251 ATRs): Broad strength across the basket. SLV at 43 leads. GLD at 42, PLTM at 36, CENX at 35, ATI at 30, LIT at 23, SQM at 18, URA at 15, NIKL at 9. CPER at 0.

Energy (~85 ATRs): KGS at 29 leads. BNO at 18, UGA at 15, USO at 14, DVN at 5, EQT at 5. OPAL short at -2.

Finance/Real Estate/Misc (~112 ATRs): FLKR at 67 ATRs anchors the sector. EZA at 16, FLJP at 15, FEZ at 8. CLW short at 5, BAC at 3, UDR short at 2. KCCA short at -3.

Mfg/Retail (~37 ATRs): GPK short at 22 leads. MKC short at 9, CMG short at 8. SLGN short at 2, DOW at 2, OI short at 2. MDLZ short at -5, BIRK short at -2, REYN short at -2.

Tech/Media/Telecom (~27 ATRs): GFS at 19 leads. SPIR at 7, CGNX at 3, NFLX short at 2. GDS at -4.

Agri/Food/Softs (~32 ATRs): HRL short at 8, FMC short at 8, SOYB at 7. CANE short at 5, CTVA at 5, CALM short at 3, JBSS at 1. DOLE at -3, CORN at -2.

Health Care (~7 ATRs): NVO short at 11 leads. ZBH short at 1, COO short at 1, NVAX at 1. ABBV short at -3, INMD short at -2, OPCH short at -2, PFE at -1.

Interest Rates (~-8 ATRs): Whole short basket net negative. MBB at -2, TIP at -2, ILS at -2, IEF at -1, TLT at -1. BWX flat.

Crypto (~10 ATRs): RIOT at 6 leads. XRPI short at 4. IBIT short at -1.

Flyers (~23 ATRs): EIDO short at 10 and RDW at 10 lead. AEVA at 3, FPH short at 2. GLBE short at -2.

FX (~82 ATRs): CHFJPY at 20 leads. USDCNY short at 19, AUDNZD at 16, GBPJPY at 10. AUDCHF at 6, USDNOK short at 5, USDJPY at 4, CADCHF short at 3.

BENDING T STATISTICS

Why Classic Trend Following?

It’s simple and systematic. We follow the price and let the rules do the work. All entries, exits and stop losses are based on systematic, predefined rules.

It works across all asset classes. Equities, Commodities, Currencies, Interest Rates and Crypto.

Its built for survival, by cutting losses quickly. Small losses are paid for by huge asymmetrical gains.

Core Principles:

. Small bets = small losses.

. Risk management is paramount.

. One Entry, One Exit and a Stop Loss

. Let profits run.

. Diversification

Core Strategy:

Long Term Breakouts. Buy breakouts and sell breakdowns. Exit on shorter day lookbacks. When price closes above/below exit. Get out. A loose stop loss to give each trade plenty of room to breathe.

Risk Management: Max risk for each market is currently ~0.35% of my current closed equity.

If you’ve tried Trend Following and felt stuck, or thought the starting capital requirement was out of reach, this is your chance to approach it differently. Shoot me a message and lets start a conversation.

I write them down and hang on to them. At some point I incorporate them into my short-term system. Sometimes I get a position. Sometimes they sit until I update the list and pull them. Occasionally one finds its way into my two longer-term systems if it adds diversity and I have a place for it.

This post covers the 13 currently on the list.

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I run a systematic trend following portfolio across stocks, ETFs, and FX. Eleven sectors, plus a few flyers. Every instrument carries the same risk per trade. The universe is largely fixed. An instrument earns its spot one way: diversity.

My Tradesheet covers eleven core sectors:

• Agri/Food/Softs

• Crypto

• Energy

• Finance/Real Estate

• FX

• Health Care

• Interest Rates

• Manufacturing/Retail

• Metals

• Tech/Media/Telecom

• Utilities/Transport

Plus a few flyers and hedges. The flyers are what this post is about.

On the Tradesheet

Energy

ASPI, ASP Isotopes Inc. Enriches Uranium-235 for next-gen nuclear reactors and runs LNG and helium assets after the Renergen acquisition. Currently developing High-Assay Low-Enriched Uranium (HALEU) enrichment services with TerraPower and holds a take-or-pay contract for at least $2.5M of Carbon-14 a year with a Canadian customer. Q1 2026 total revenue $4.18M, up from $1.10M a year ago.

FF, FutureFuel Corp. Manufactures biodiesel blends and custom performance chemicals. The biodiesel plant was idled in Q2 2025 over uncertainty in the Clean Fuel Production Credit transition and has since restarted, while chemicals revenue more than doubled YoY behind a new energy-market product. Q1 2026 revenue rebounded 82.2% YoY to $31.95M.

STEM, Stem Inc. Battery energy storage with proprietary Athena and PowerTrack software. Walking away from low-margin battery hardware resale and pushing the high-margin software licensing side, which now sits on 1.7 GWh of operating assets under management and $67.2M in contracted annual recurring revenue.

Finance / Real Estate

FPH, Five Point Holdings. Master-planned developer building large-scale, mixed-use residential and commercial communities in California. Their two flagship projects are Great Park in Orange County and Valencia in Los Angeles County, both covering full planned neighborhoods with commercial space, schools, and parks.

FPI, Farmland Partners Inc. Farmland REIT that leases productive acreage to independent operators. Trimming non-core exposure through sales like a recent $9.4M West Coast farm divestiture and rotating capital into higher-yielding agricultural regions.

Manufacturing / Retail

KTOS, Kratos Defense. Builds jet-powered unmanned aerial systems and tactical missile engines. Expanding domestic capacity for its Spartan low-cost turbojet engine line to support a 3,000-unit production run next year tied to global loitering munition programs. Q1 2026 revenue $371M, 22.6% total growth and 15.8% organic.

SBGSY, Schneider Electric. Multinational electrical equipment maker with a big foothold in data center cooling and grid hardware. Its digital flywheel strategy combines physical hardware, cloud edge control, and software including AVEVA, now generating €25B in revenue, or 62% of total business.

RDW, Redwire Corporation. Builds star trackers, sun sensors, solar arrays, and microgravity payloads for the space supply chain. Splits revenue between federal contracts, defense agencies, and commercial aerospace manufacturers, with uncrewed airborne systems added on the defense side. Two segments: Space and Defense Tech.

Tech / Media / Telecom

GLBE, Global-e Online. Cloud SaaS that handles localized checkout, duties, and fulfillment for cross-border ecommerce. Just acquired Passport to expand the international footprint and authorized a new $500M share repurchase program. Q1 2026 GMV $1.74B, up 40% YoY.

AEVA, Aeva Technologies. Silicon photonics 4D LiDAR-on-chip. Measures velocity and depth simultaneously. Launched Aeva CityOS, an AI-powered traffic intelligence platform built on NVIDIA AGX Orin and already deployed at intersections in Fargo, and partnered with LG Innotek on the Aeva Omni short-range sensor targeting a 2027 launch for robots and drones. Selected by Forterra to power autonomous defense vehicles.

AMPG, AmpliTech Group. RF components, 5G/6G radios, and cryogenic amplifiers for quantum computing. Partnered with NVIDIA and Northeastern University on the world’s first open-source AI-RAN massive MIMO demonstration and signed a distribution agreement with NGK Electronic Devices for high-frequency ceramic packaging. The only vendor at the O-RAN PlugFest Spring 2026 with a 64T64R Massive MIMO radio unit.

Utilities / Transport

SBLK, Star Bulk Carriers. Dry bulk shipping across Newcastlemax, Capesize, and Panamax fleets. Moves iron ore, coal, grain, and bauxite, while rolling the fleet by selling older tonnage like the Star Scarlett and Star Mariella for $46.4M and putting $92.3M into pre-delivery installments on eight fuel-efficient newbuilds.

Health Care

NVAX, Novavax. Transitioning from direct vaccine sales to a royalty and licensing model with Sanofi, Pfizer, and others. Sanofi now leads commercial activities for Nuvaxovid and owns the Czech manufacturing plant, while Pfizer paid $30M upfront for a non-exclusive license to use the Matrix-M adjuvant in its own pipeline.

How a Flyer Earns a Spot

A flyer has to add diversity. It needs to be something unique to my current list, or something that just seems interesting. Quite a few are microcaps or very new stocks.

The goal is to keep a rotating list of new stocks on my radar. Not driven by a relative momentum model. Just recommendations I see, filtered by whether they add diversity.

If you’re interested in learning about future investment partnerships that may launch, subscribe and reach out to me directly through chat.

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No macro thesis. No rotation calls. No opinion on where the dollar goes or what the Fed does next. Just the instruments on my Tradesheet, what each one does, and why it adds diversity.

My Tradesheet covers eleven core sectors:

• Agri/Food/Softs

• Crypto

• Energy

• Finance/Real Estate

• FX

• Health Care

• Interest Rates

• Manufacturing/Retail

• Metals

• Tech/Media/Telecom

• Utilities/Transport

Plus a few flyers and hedges.

Every instrument carries the same risk per trade, currently ~0.35% of my current trade level. The universe is largely fixed. Instruments may be benched when ATR or per-share price makes position sizing impractical at current AUM.

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Tech / Media / Telecom

This sector has 11 instruments on the Tradesheet. They span semiconductor fabrication, machine vision, data center operations, autonomous vehicle platforms, lidar sensors, quantum computing, telecom networks, cloud software, consumer streaming, and satellite analytics. The common thread is digital infrastructure. Every instrument derives its value from the systems that move, process, or store data. That is why they are grouped here rather than scattered across the sheet.

On the Tradesheet

CGNX, Cognex Corporation. Develops AI-powered machine vision systems and electronic inspection tools for industrial automation. Annual revenue runs near $994 million with gross margins around 68%, supported by a debt-light balance sheet relative to its market cap. The company recently embedded its vision controllers into Qualcomm and NVIDIA platforms, extending its presence at the edge of the manufacturing floor.

GDS, GDS Holdings Limited. Operates carrier-neutral, high-performance data centers across major Chinese economic hubs including Shanghai, Beijing, Shenzhen, and Guangzhou. Performance is driven by cloud adoption in China and the demand for high-density server configurations. To fund expansion without overleveraging, GDS listed a C-REIT seeded by its mature Chinese facilities in July 2025 and reduced its stake in its international unit, DayOne, to roughly 37%, valuing that position at $1.3 billion.

GFS, GlobalFoundries Inc. Contract semiconductor manufacturer with fabrication facilities in the United States, Europe, and Singapore. It holds Trusted Foundry status with the U.S., European, and Singaporean governments, making it a preferred supplier for aerospace, defense, and automotive customers who need supply chains outside geopolitically sensitive regions. 2025 revenue came in at $6.8 billion.

MBLY, Mobileye Global Inc. Designs the EyeQ system-on-chip and software stack that powers advanced driver-assistance systems and Level 4 autonomous vehicles. More than 230 million vehicles worldwide carry Mobileye technology. First-quarter 2026 revenue rose 27% year-over-year to $558 million, and the board authorized a $250 million share repurchase program on the back of it.

OUST, Ouster Inc. Manufactures digital lidar sensors for robotics, warehouse automation, and autonomous navigation. Its Rev8 sensors run on a proprietary L4 silicon chip that integrates laser depth perception and ambient light detection in a single substrate, which lowers manufacturing cost and reduces the post-processing burden for AI training systems. Sensor range spans from the wide-angle short-range OS0 to the OS2, which delivers 128 channels of resolution out to 400 meters.

QBTS, D-Wave Quantum Inc. Develops quantum computing hardware, software frameworks, and cloud-hosted quantum processing services. Revenue is early-stage. The market is pricing the stock as a long-duration call option on quantum computing becoming commercially viable, not on near-term financial metrics. The balance sheet is liquid by design to fund ongoing R&D.

T, AT&T Inc. Provides the nationwide wireless voice, broadband, and telecommunications network that connects edge devices to data centers. Performance is driven by network utilization, subscriber count, and capital return policy. It is the physical layer that everything else in this sector runs on top of.

MSFT, Microsoft Corporation. Operates the Azure cloud platform alongside its enterprise software and operating system stack. Azure handles a large share of the AI and enterprise workloads running across the sector. Performance is driven by cloud revenue growth, enterprise licensing, and AI-related compute demand.

NVDA, NVIDIA Corporation. Designs the GPUs and AI software architectures that power deep learning, model training, and inference at scale. Its hardware is embedded in Cognex’s vision controllers, throughout data center infrastructure, and inside the cloud platforms that run on Azure and competing services. Performance follows AI compute demand.

NFLX, Netflix Inc. Delivers subscription streaming to over 300 million paid memberships globally. Revenue is driven by subscriber growth and content pricing, making performance more closely tied to consumer spending and digital adoption than to the hardware cycles or enterprise budgets that move most of this sector. It runs on the same broadband infrastructure as every other instrument here, but it does not move like them.

SPIR, Spire Global Inc. Operates a multi-purpose nanosatellite constellation that collects radio frequency data from orbit and sells it as subscription-based analytics to government, logistics, and maritime customers. Coverage spans aviation tracking, weather modeling, and navigation. The data collection happens in space. That is the differentiator.

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Correlation Matrix

All 11 instruments, monthly returns, 11/01/2022 – 04/30/2026.

The six instruments with a longer data history, monthly returns, 12/01/2016 – 04/30/2026.

Sector Stats

Total markets in sector: 11

% of total tradesheet: 9.2%

Target allocation: 9%

Current open positions: 5 long / 2 short / 4 flat

I have Tech, Media, and Telecom combined into one group. While they are similar, they can and do give different returns. I do have several AI-related companies. They should be complementary to each other, but not solely dependent on each other.

For more diversity, I have a couple of legacy companies, AT&T and Microsoft. They have shown resilience over decades, trending both up and down multiple times over their history.

These are not random growth stocks. No single instrument represents the whole picture. Together they give me exposure across Tech, Media, and Telecom without stacking the same risk twice.

My Systems all are classic trend following. Buying or selling the breakout or breakdowns. Cutting losers fast and letting winners run. ATR stop losses between 3 and 6 and holding until the trailing stop gives an exit signal. S2 and S3 are classic Donchian trailing stops but they are shorter than the entry signal. S1 currently uses a chandler stop.

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My name is Josh Tucker. And since July 2025 I have be running a systematic trend following portfolio for myself. Rules-based entries, position sizing tied to volatility, no prediction required. Classic Trend Following.

Bending The Trend is a monthly dispatch. What the system did. Where the portfolio stands.

In this April update:

• Portfolio Snapshot

• Historical Monthly Performance

• Sector Summary

• Portfolio Statistics
  

  ---

  
  
  Bending Trend portfolio was up +3.38% in April. Up +12.02% YTD (Jan-Apr).

Subscribe now

April 2026 Summary

Current Outliers: BWET(L) ~493 ATRs, GLD(L) ~49 ATRs, BNO(L) ~30 ATRs, KGS(L) ~27 ATRs, UGA(L) ~26 ATRs, USO(L) ~22 ATRs, SQM(L) ~21 ATRs, LIT(L) ~20 ATRs

Current Losing Trades: DRS(L) ~-7 ATRs, MUB(L) ~-6 ATRs, FEZ(S) ~-5 ATRs, CPER(L) ~-5 ATRs, TIP(S) ~-3 ATRs

Sector Performance

Utilities/Transport (+239 ATRs, 264 → 503): BWET added 239-ATRs in a single month. BDRY added as well, up to 12.5 ATRs. KNX turned further positive at 6.2 ATRs. This sector alone represents more than half of total portfolio unrealized P/L.

Metal/Raw Materials (+~200 ATRs, 186 → ~385): Metals across the board recovered in April. March’s worst sector became April’s second-best.

Energy (+~28 ATRs, 75 → ~103): The three core crude and gas positions extended. BNO at 30 ATRs, UGA at 26 ATRs, USO at 22 ATRs, KGS at 27 ATRs. These positions were at single-digit ATRs at February close and have compounded steadily.

Agri/Food/Softs (flat, ~16 → ~11): Mixed month. SOYB is the best long at 5.1 ATRs. MKC short is at 10.1 ATRs. WEAT gave back and sits at -2.6 ATRs, still holding. CORN and DOLE are slightly in the red. CANE short nearly flat. CTVA and TSN holding small positive.

Tech/Media/Telecom (+~15 ATRs, -3.3 → ~12): Turned positive. GFS led the recovery, up 12.2

Finance/Real Estate/Misc (flat, -8.6 → flat): BAC turned positive at 2.9 ATRs from last month’s losing position. FLJP added and sits at 1.9 ATRs.

Health Care (flat, 7.3 → ~1): ATR short is working at 5.4 ATRs. ELAN and PFE both slightly negative. ABBV short just entered and slightly underwater.

Crypto (+11 ATRs, 9.8 → ~7): All four short positions, ETHA, IBIT, SOLZ, XRPI, are generating positive unrealized.

Interest Rates (-~9 ATRs, 0.5 → flat): Net negative for the month. TIP short at -3.2 ATRs and MUB long at -5.6 ATRs are the drags. BWX short and IEF short generating small gains. TLT short essentially flat.

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Why Classic Trend Flowing?

It’s simple and systematic. We follow the price and let the rules do the work. All entries, exits and stop losses are based on systematic, predefined rules.

It works across all asset classes. – Equities, Commodities, Currencies, Interest Rates, and Crypto.

Its built for survival, by cutting losses quickly. Small losses are paid for by huge asymmetrical gains.

Core Principles:

· Small bets = small losses.

· Risk management is paramount.

· One Entry, One Exit and a Stop Loss

· Let profits run.

· Diversification

Core Strategy:

Long Term Breakouts. Buy breakouts and sell breakdowns Exit on shorter day look backs. When price closes above/below exit. Get out. A loose stop loss to give each trade plenty of room to breathe.

Risk Management: Max risk for each market is currently ~0.35% of my current closed equity.

If you’ve tried Trend Following and felt stuck… or thought the starting capital required was out of reach… this is your chance to approach it differently. Shoot me a message and lets start a conversation.

Read more

No macro thesis. No rotation calls. No opinion on where the dollar goes or what the Fed does next. Just the instruments on my …

Read more

No macro thesis. No rotation calls. No opinion on where the dollar goes or what the Fed does next. Just the instruments on my …

Read more

Very few write down actual specific rules.

These are not the same thing. And confusing them is what keeps most traders stuck.

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They don’t.

They have a “I’ll fix the sizing next month” problem.

You’ve spent years optimizing your entries. Testing systems. Studying price action. You know what edge looks like.

What you’ve never done is sit down and answer six questions that determine whether your account survives long enough for that edg…

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It is this: never size a position so large that one loss changes how you trade.

That sentence deserves to sit alone. Because everything in the previous post, the fixed dollar methods, the percentage risk rules, the volatility-adjusted formulas. Every single…

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My name is Josh Tucker. And since July 2025 I have be running a systematic trend following portfolio for myself. Rules-based entries, position sizing…

Read more

Not because the person answering is lying. Because the answer they give belongs to their risk tolerance, their timeframe, their relationship with losing. None of it belongs to you. You hear the result and assume the system is the variable.

It isn’t.

When you copy so…

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Entries first. Exits second. Fixed percentage if they’re disciplined enough to get there. At that point, they feel like they’ve figured it out.

They haven’t. They’ve just stopped losing fast.

Fixed percentage gets you in the game. Volatility targeting keeps you there.

That’s not a knock on fixed percent…

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You lose a trade. You conclude the strategy was flawed. So you go learn another one. You trade that. You lose again.

Back to the books.

Another YouTube video.

This can go on for years. And here’s the part nobody tells you: every rotation feels like progress. New terminology. New f…

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A formula. Developed by a Bell Labs scientist. Mathematically proven to maximize long-term capital growth. It accounts for your win rate, your reward-to-risk ratio, and tells you exactly how much to risk on every trade. After chapters of dealing with sizing methods that ignore edg…

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